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| Big East Leading Pittsburgh Takes On Villanova In Regular Season Finale |
Pittsburgh is already 25-4 and in theory we look to go against teams that have reached that win plateau in regular season play. There’s something of an ‘unwritten rule’ that for a major conference team that a 20 win season virtually guarantees an ‘at large’ bid to the NCAA tournament while a 25 win season will be rewarded with a #1 or #2 seed and a favorable regional placement. That’s definitely true for a power conference like the Big East. Pittsburgh sure didn’t look like they were ‘phoning it in’ in a hard fought overtime loss at Louisville last weekend and we don’t expect to see them doing it here. Villanova has been a poor road team this season going 3-7 ATS away from home and have generally struggled down the stretch in Big East play in all settings. They're coming off of a pair of outright upsets at home as a favorite, losing by 13 to St. John's on Saturday as a -6' point chalk and before that losing by 5 to Syracuse as a -5 home favorite. They followed those games up with a completely non-competitive loss on the road to Notre Dame which left them at 4-7 SU and a dismal 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games. Villanova isn’t a bad team, but they look to be completely worn out by the brutal grind of the Big East regular season schedule and playing out the string until conference play starts. They had enough talent to start the season 16-1 SU, but they’ve gone 5-8 SU since then. The Wildcats were reasonably competitive against Pittsburgh at home earlier this season, but eventually lost by 5 in a game the Panthers played without leading scorer Ashton Gibbs. A bigger concern is the tendency Villanova has shown to get completely outworked on the offensive and defensive boards—they’ve been outrebounding by virtually all of their Big East opponents and that’s a problem since Pittsburgh is arguably the best rebounding team in the conference. More significantly, Villanova has shown little competitive fire on the road down the stretch which gives this game all the makings of a rout for the home team. Pittsburgh wins big and covers easily here. 
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