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| Mavs Hit The Road To Face Improving Warriors |
Since Dirk Nowitzki return from a brief injury absence, the Mavs have been playing the best basketball in the league. They enter the week on a 7-3 SU run and have been equally successful on the road as at home. At American Airlines Arena in Dallas the Mavs are 24-10 SU, while on the road they’re 23-9 SU. Against the spread, they’ve been one of the dominant road teams in the NBA posting a 20-11 ATS record away from home. They’re going to be hard pressed to run down San Antonio, who holds a 7 game lead in the Western Conference but their primary goal at this point is to stay ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers who are ½ game behind the Mavs. Golden State isn’t much of a road team with a 9-23 record (though they have made money against the spread away from home). At home, they’re starting to play like a team headed in the right direction. The Warriors are 21-13 SU/18-16 ATS on their own court this season. They’ve actually been a good pointspread play at home for the past few years going 67-48 since 2008 but this year they’re not just hanging around but translating their solid home court into SU wins. They’ve improved their defense marginally, though they need to tighten up that phase of their game to move to the next level. And they still play ‘uptempo’ ball, though coach Keith Smart has them playing under a greater degree of control than in the past. There’s a lot to like about the Mavericks in this situation starting with their solid play away from home. They also don’t suffer as much of a tactical disadvantage against the ‘run and gun’ Warriors as most of their opponents and can be competitive in a higher scoring game. Our bigger concern, however, is the Dallas scheduling stretch surrounding this game. They played the Los Angeles Lakers at home on Saturday and will play at Portland on Tuesday. Immediately after this game they’ll return home to prepare for a huge matchup against the West leading San Antonio Spurs. Golden State will catch them in the second of back to back games, present an almost 180 degree stylistic difference from the Blazers and it’ll be hard for Dallas not to be in ‘lookahead mode’ with the Spurs game on deck. We’ll call for Golden State to pull the outright upset as a home underdog. 
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An intriguing matchup in a nationally televised Western Conference NBA game on Wednesday night as the 
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