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| Heat Take on Celtics in NBA Playoff Preview |
First, let’s address the proverbial ‘elephant in the room’—the Boston Celtics are likely ‘in the head’ of LeBron James. Boston eliminated James’ former team—the Cleveland Cavaliers—from the playoffs in ignominious fashion last season and LeBron’s Miami Heat team has yet to beat the Celtics in three tries this season. That gives the Celtics a strongly advantageous psychological edge that we’ll discuss in greater detail below. Celtics’ coach Doc Rivers has never denied the fact that his team doesn’t place a huge priority on the regular season and he has no qualms about losing a regular season game if it means that Boston is in a better position for the postseason. Boston also doesn’t seem to put a huge priority on their playoff seeding—as long as they finish top three (which they will since they’ve already clinched the Atlantic Division) they like their chances. Miami has a lot more at stake in this matchup and a much greater need to finish in at least second place. With all of the preseason hype there’s already a perception that this Heat team has underachieved by not running away with the Eastern Conference. Miami hasn’t been overly dominant at home, so the difference between playing at home or on the road in the playoffs may be minimal but the symbolic need to finish as high up in the standings as possible could be greater than anything else. And, of course, another loss to the Celtics would make Boston’s psychological edge even greater than it already is. The psychological dimensions of this game are, in our view, the most salient component of the handicapping equation. Boston has a couple of ways to maximize their ‘edge’ over the Heat heading into the playoffs. The obviously recourse is another win, but that’s not the only option—the most effective strategy for Boston would be to not act like this game is a big deal to them and rest their starters. In other words, Boston could benefit as much from ‘letting’ Miami win. The Heat would get the “W” but it would mean nothing in terms of Boston’s ‘mental edge’ over Miami since they didn’t get the Celtics best shot. And if Boston’s reserves manage to compete or even beat the Heat, the Celtics mojo over LeBron and company becomes even greater. Our best suggestion in terms of a wagering position is to lay what should be a small price with Miami—the Celtics have nothing to prove here and we don’t expect to see their best effort. That also means Boston won’t be bringing their ‘A game’ defensively and for that reason we expect the score to go OVER the total. 
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This game is a ‘marquee matchup’ by virtue of the principles alone, but there could be even more at stake as these teams are neck and neck for the #2 and #3 spots in the Eastern Conference. Boston currently holds down second place with a ½ game lead over Miami, but the Celtics have to play at Chicago on Thursday night. Regardless of that outcome, this game will have important implications for the playoff seedings of both sides.
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