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| USC Begins Lane Kiffin Era With Trip To Hawaii |
Even when the Trojans were among college football’s elite during the final years of the Carroll tenure, they weren’t a very good pointspread team. USC was 21-5 in the last three seasons, but only 12-14 against the spread. As a road favorite, their performance was even worse—9-3 straight up but 3-9 ATS. They have been a good bet in non conference games with a 6-2 pointspread mark. They’ve played Hawaii three times since 1992, winning and covering all three including two games in Hawaii. None of these games were during the last three years. Hawaii is the definition of ‘mediocre’ against the spread. During the last three seasons they’re 12-12 ATS overall, with a 5-7 ATS mark at home. They’re 4-5 ATS in non-conference games, but have fared very poorly in this price range. As a home underdog of 10’ to 21 points they’re 0-3 straight up and against the spread. The Lane Kiffin hire left many college football observers scratching their heads. He does have strong ties to the Trojan football program, but his coaching resume at best can be graded as ‘incomplete’. He went 7-6 SU in his only season at Tennessee, and before that endured a stormy run as head coach of the NFL Oakland Raiders. His Raiders’ coaching gig ended with the now infamous Al Davis press conference, where the venerable Oakland owner completely ‘blew Kiffin up’ questioning, among other things, his personal character. While that may be debatable, Kiffin has most certainly ‘burnt bridges’ wherever he’s gone and his decision to bolt Knoxville after one season running the Volunteers program made him one of the most hated people in Tennessee sports history. On the other hand, with NCAA probations an almost certain outcome at the time of his hire the Trojan program simply didn’t have the talent pool to draw from that they would have otherwise. Kiffin was willing to ride out the next few years under NCAA sanctions, and that loyalty clearly made a difference to the USC hierarchy. So what to expect in this game? Kiffin is faced with a huge rebuilding task in terms of personnel alone, as only 5 offensive and 6 defensive starters return with only 2 and 3 respectively along the line. Clearly the quality of athlete the USC program attracts even in lean times is far superior to anything that Hawaii can counter. In theory, Hawaii’s pass happy offense is tough for teams to prepare for if they don’t face it frequently. The degree of difficulty is significantly diminished, however, when you’ve got the sort of team speed up front to mount a tenacious pass rush and the Trojans definitely have that. The Rainbows are also in a rebuilding mode, and return only one starter along the offensive line among 5 starters total. Ultimately, the price just looks too high. Best case scenario, USC has the athleticism necessary to give the Hawaii passing attack fits and the Rainbows have never been known for their defensive tenacity. They do play the sort of football, however, that means the back door will always be open and no margin is really safe. In a game with questions on both sides of the ledger we’d much rather take the big price instead of lay it. Look for Hawaii to squeak by inside the number in a game that goes UNDER the posted total. 
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A lot of changes at hand for the USC Trojans this season with the departure of Pete Carroll to the NFL Seattle Seahawks. Former Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin takes over the program under the cloud of NCAA sanctions that have resulted in a two year bowl ban. This presents him with not only the challenge of taking over the most successful program of the past decade but recruiting and keeping his team’s focus without anything significant to play for in the immediate future. It all gets underway on Thursday night as the Trojans play at the University of Hawaii.
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