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| Friday College Football Features Arizona At Toledo |
The Wildcats return 10 starters on offense including 4 linemen, but only 4 on defense (two linemen). The most important returnees are QB Nick Foles and RB Nic Grigsby. In recent years the team has become more offensively oriented, a switch from the 1990’s when they were known for their nasty ‘Desert Swarm’ defense. Toledo has good continuity on both sides of the ball, which isn’t surprising for a team that saw six true freshmen start at least two games in 2009. They’ve got good talent at wide receiver and running back, but the big question mark is at the quarterback position. Obviously that’s key, and unless the quarterback can get the talented playmakers the ball their offense will struggle. It’s also a mixed bag for each team from a pointspread standpoint. Overall, Arizona has been decent against the spread in recent years with a 14-11 ATS mark in the last three seasons. They’ve had most of their success at home, however, and their pointspread record away from Tucson is far less impressive. The Wildcats are 3-8 ATS on the road in the last three years, and an even more dismal 1-5 ATS as a road favorite. As a chalk in this price range, their track record is downright ugly. They’re 1-1 ATS as a favorite of 10’ to 21 points in the last three seasons, but a brutal 7-20 ATS in that role since 1992. Toledo has a 3 year pointspread record of 11-13 and were 5-7 SU and ATS in 2009. Their biggest liability last season was a pass defense that ranked 92nd in the country, which should improve this season as their young secondary gets more experience under their belt. The Rockets are on a 6-5 ATS run at home and as a favorite of 10’ to 21 points they’re 2-1 ATS. The teams’ only recent meeting was in 2008, when Arizona won and covered at home. There’s a risk that both teams will be looking down the road and not putting much emphasis on this season opener. Toldeo has back to back MAC road games on September 11th and 18th against teams in Ohio and Western Michigan that they have a realistic chance of beating. That’s followed by a big non-conference game at Purdue and a home game against Wyoming in which they also stand a good chance of getting a victory. They may be more interested in keeping players healthy for that scheduling stretch than anything else. For Arizona, there’s a chance that they may view the first two games on their 2010 as something approximating preseason contests. The Wildcats have this game followed by an almost certain home victory against 1-AA/FCS The Citadel before they get to face any real competition. Arizona takes on Iowa at home on 9/18 followed by the start of Pac 10 play with home dates against California and Oregon State. Given the tendency of their key offensive playmakers Grigsby and Foles to suffer nagging injuries, a gameplan that seeks to protect them for more pressing tasks down the road is a distinct possibility. Overall, it’s a strange matchup between a pair of teams that may both be looking down the road. In a situation like this, we’d much rather have the big pointspread working for us than against us. We’ll look for Toledo to keep this game within the pointspread and with both sides having some new faces on defense it should be a contest dictated by the offense. As a result, we’ll look OVER the total. 
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One game in Friday college football, and it offers a somewhat strange matchup between Pac 10 entrant Arizona and MAC also ran Toledo. The venue—at Toledo—is even stranger as these early season ‘paycheck games’ are most frequently played at the home site of the more dominant team. Arizona is off of a 8-5 SU season under 7th year coach Mike Stoops in which many college football observers expected better from the team which has earned them a reputation as underachievers. Toledo should improve under second year coach Tim Beckman, but are they improved enough to hang with even a second tier Pac 10 squad?
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