Playoffs at Stake as Maple Leafs Face Hurricanes

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Playoffs at Stake as Maple Leafs Face Hurricanes

On paper a matchup between one of the most traditionally successful franchises in the NHL located in arguably the hockey capital of North America and an upstart transplant from North Carolina via Hartford and the WHA wouldn’t suggest a highly important game. In this case, however, it could be crucial to the playoff hopes of both the Leafs and Canes. Entering this week Carolina is the last team out of the postseason mix in 9th place, trailing Buffalo and the New York Rangers by 6 points. Toronto is in 10th place, two points back of Carolina. The RBC Center in Raleigh, NC will be the site of this matchup which will be televised in Canada by TSN.

Neither team is in exceptional form at this point, though Toronto is playing better hockey than Carolina. The Leafs are 5-2-3 in their last 10 games and the 3 overtime/shootout losses have been an issue for both sides—Toronto and Carolina are among 7 teams with double digit overtime/shootout losses. Statistically, the Maple Leafs don’t excel offensive or defensively—Toronto has the #24 scoring offense in the league scoring 2.58 PPG. That’s a problem since they’ve also got the #25 ranked scoring defense in the league allowing 3.00 goals per game. Overall, that’s a -30 goal differential on the season which is the second worst in the Eastern Conference.

Carolina is on a 3-5-2 run in their last 10 games and entered the week on a four game losing streak. Going back a bit further, they’ve won only 6 of their last 19 games. Statistically, the Hurricanes’ defense is essentially just as bad as Toronto’s—Carolina is tied for the #24 scoring defense allowing 2.96 goals per game. They do have a minor mitigating factor of a top ten scoring offense—Hurricanes are the #10 scoring offense in the league with a 2.78 goals per game average. Still, that means they allow more goals than they score which doesn’t translate into victories. The ‘canes goal differential is slightly better than Toronto’s, but at -13 is still in the red.

Objectively, neither the Hurricanes nor Maple Leafs are really playoff level teams. As noted above, both have negative goal differential figures and as of the first of the week there’s only one team that has scored fewer goals than they’ve allowed in a playoff qualification position in either conference. That’s the high scoring Tampa Bay Lightning, and they’ve been sinking like a stone in the standings lately. In this matchup, however, we’ll go with the road team since we’ll get a plus money underdog price in an otherwise toss up game. Plus the Leafs have been in better form of late and that should be enough to get a victory here.