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| Pick Three: Uncovering Three Horses That Can Win the Breeders' Cup Classic |
The favorite: Zenyatta. All eyes are on Zenyatta to make a perfect 20-0 win. Zenyatta has won all seventeen of her synthetic starts on Cushion Track, Polytrack, and Pro-Ride, but she is also 2-for-2 on conventional dirt, and both of those outings at Oaklawn Park were her largest win margins. Her best Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) was earned in the 2009 Classic, so one could argue that she will be racing at her best distance/surface at Churchill Downs. For those unfamiliar with speed figure technology, BSFs convert the raw time of a race into a mathematically derived number taking into account variations in inherent track speed. Zenyatta is favored for a reason, but like many horses, can she hold up with all the media attention and paparazzi that follow her every move and overcome it to win the Classic? She is a late runner that overcomes pace and/or track bias to win every time and this will be her toughest test yet. She has the ability. The Dark Horse: Fly Down. Nick Zito pre-entered Fly Down into the $5M Classic. Fly Down, who broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last fall, has demonstrated a strong late kick that has powered him to victory in the Dwyer and second-place finishes in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers Stakes, which he lost by just a nose to Afleet Express. Fly Down wasn't prominent as a 2-year-old of 2009, but in 2010 he started making a name for himself by winning the 1 1/8-mile Dwyer Stakes in preparation for the Belmont Stakes, then placing second in the Belmont. Later in the Summer, it was an exciting finish for the top two in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 28. The photo showed that Afleet Express had gotten a sliver of a nostril in front of Fly Down in one of the closest finishes of the Travers. Fly Down is extremely dangerous if the race sets up right for him. My pick: Quality Road. The 4-year-old Quality Road, a son of Elusive Quality, has had a roller-coaster career: the confident, record-setting winner of the 2009 Florida Derby appeared headed for 2009 Kentucky Derby favoritism, but then was knocked off the Triple Crown trail by a quarter crack. He returned to the winner’s circle – and set another track record – in last summer’s Amsterdam Stakes. He came to the 2009 Breeders’ Cup off credible performances behind eventual divisional champion Summer Bird in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. But at the Breeders’ Cup, he suffered his most infamous setback when he became so fractious at the starting gate that he ultimately was the race’s first-ever gate scratch. That incident is definitely is his rear-view mirror. Quality Road comes into the 2010 Classic with an almost perfect season. His three Grade 1 victories include a 12 3/4-length romp in the Donn Handicap in track-record time of 1:47.49. His only loss was by a head to Blame in the Whitney. The rail is not the best place to be for the speed of the race but trainer Todd Pletcher was not throwing in the towel just yet. Quality Road is the third favorite and with the speed of the field coming off the rail the start should be exciting. By Matt Regaw 
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Saturday November 6, 2010 will be the 27th running of the 
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