Favorite Status No Guarantee Of Kentucky Derby Success

Monday, 12 April 2010 06:00

Although the Breeders’ Cup is now the ‘richest day in racing’, no horse racing event captures the imagination and attention of the general public like the Kentucky Derby. The annual ‘Run for the Roses’ is an event that transcends the sport, giving people who don’t otherwise follow horse racing a good excuse to have a party and to place a wager. Like other mega-events in other sports including the Superbowl and March Madness, the hype surrounding the Kentucky Derby frequently overshadows the actual horse race.

When the horses enter the starting gate for the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 1 there’s a good chance that the betting favorite will be Wood Memorial winner Eskendereya. Eskendereya didn’t impress many people with his 9th place finish in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he’s won over a lot of skeptics with his performance this spring. Clearly showing a preference for natural dirt over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita, Eskendereya has vaulted to the top of the list of Derby hopefuls with an impressive win at Gulfstream’s Fountain Of Youth and most recently enhanced his status as presumptive favorite with an even more dominant victory in the Wood Memorial.

Although Eskendereya looks to be a solid contender to wear the rose wreath given to the winner, the Kentucky Derby betting favorite hasn’t always had an easy time of it during the past quarter century. In 1979, Spectacular Bid would win the Kentucky Derby as a favorite and make a credible challenge at winning the ‘Triple Crown’ before falling short at Belmont. At the time, no one could have imagined that Spectacular Bid would be the last favorite to win the Kentucky Derby for twenty one years!

In the past decade, a bet on the Kentucky Derby favorite has fared better. In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus ended the downright bizarre ‘favorite jinx’ and would be the first of three favored horses to wear the roses in the following decade. Favorites Smarty Jones (2004), Street Sense (2007) and Big Brown (2008) would all win the Kentucky Derby, and some have suggested a return to normalcy.

When you’re dealing with horse race betting, however, ‘normal’ is a relative term. Last year’s winner, Mine That Bird, was a 50-1 shot—the highest Kentucky Derby odds for a winning horse in 85 years! Mine That Bird was also one of only nine geldings to win the Derby, and only the second since 1929. While Eskendereya is certainly worthy of consideration for this year’s race, if history has demonstrated anything it’s the importance of not overlooking the other horses in the field.

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Favorite Status No Guarantee Of Kentucky Derby Success

Favorite Status No Guarantee Of Kentucky Derby Success

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