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| Japan, Holland Look To Clinch Passage To World Cup Knockout Round |
Against Cameroon, Japan got a fortunate goal on a counterattack but otherwise played ‘not to lose’ as opposed to trying to win. They’re a team that won’t beat themselves, although they just don’t have the same level of talent as many of the other teams in the field. In particular, they lack world class playmaking and scoring. They’re good at playing solid tactical defense, conceding possession to their opponent but limiting effective shots on goal. That—along with opposing manager Paul Le Guen’s questionable tactical decisions—was enough to get it done against Cameroon. It won’t, however, be enough to be competitive against Holland. Holland simply has too much playmaking and scoring talent to defend by just ‘packing the box’ as Japan will likely try to do. Holland has Inter Milan midfielder Wesley Sneijder orchestrating and a deep and versatile group of scorers led by Bayern Munich’s Arjen Robben, Liverpool’s Dirk Kuyt and Arsenal’s Robin van Persie among others. The big question about Holland is whether their defense can stand up to a top level offense but that shouldn’t be much of an issue until they get out of group play. To their credit, the Japanese realize that they have to be more aggressive against Holland than they were against Cameroon. Head coach Okada also has done a good job downplaying the opening victory and stressing the importance of maintaining focus. The problem is that if Japan does play more aggressively, it opens up more opportunities for Holland to score. If they don’t play aggressively, they don’t have an ability to ‘manufacture’ goals. One way or the other, this looks to be three points for the Dutch. They’re a decent sized favorite in three way wagering, but that’s for a good reason and the price isn’t so outlandish as to not be playable. An alternate way to play it is to lay the -1 goal on the handicap line. On the total, there’s not a good case to be made for the OVER. Japan is good enough defensively and Holland would be content with playing possession football and maintaining a margin of a goal or two. 
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Japan and Holland both won their opening games in Group E play, and a win here could clinch a spot in the final 16. The Dutch side entered the tournament as one of the favorites to win, and despite a slow start managed to secure a comfortable win over Denmark. Japan played competently in a somewhat forgettable game against Cameroon, but used a first half goal to take a 1-0 victory. Not surprisingly, Holland is a prohibitive favorite in this matchup.
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