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| 2011 Wimbledon Men’s Draw Predictions For Entire Tournament |
Standing in Federer’s way of carving out his 17th Major will be the younger trio of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. Coming off his sixth French Open crown, Nadal will look to capture his third Paris-London double in the past four years. Losing early (once again) at Queen’s Club to start the grass season, Nadal will enter the green Slam with a bill of clean health and some much needed R&R. I know it’s hard to believe, but the Spaniard actually returns better on grass than he does on clay, and his explosive footwork and well-equipped net game have allowed him to be a constant contender at the tournament. With the No. 1 ranking in his sights, Djokovic will look to rebound from a semifinal loss to Federer in France. Opting to skip the warm-up events leading in, Djokovic will be eager to continue his remarkable start to the season. While Djokovic has improved his serve 10 folds from 2010, his shot-gun forehand and devastating return game could be enough to hoist the trophy. Dropping a disappointing semifinal affair to Berdych last year, Djokovic has proven in 2011 that his mental fortitude won’t let him down. Although his 43-match winning streak recently ended to Federer, I don’t think Djokovic’s confidence or mental state will be affected in London. How about the home-country chances of Murray? Labelled the long-time successor to Fred Perry, Murray started off his Wimbledon hopes with a second victory at Queen’s Club. It still remains to be seen though, if his predominately defensive game can flourish under the five-set format and more importantly during the latter stages of the draw? Murray has a skill set that many players would take in a heart beat, but with the rise of Djokovic and the history and experience that Nadal and Federer possess, Murray could very well remain the only member of the big four to not pocket a Major title. There will of course be other players to watch out for during the highest profile tournament of the season. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a game that can blaze through the grass; Robin Soderling owns the ammunition to dent anyone’s armor; Milos Raonic will be eager to prove that a first time appearance can translate into a surprise title; and Andy Roddick, who has reached three finals at Wimbledon, will occupy the sentimental role in the shadow of the bigger names. Anyway you slice it—and there’s usually a lot of that going around this time of year—the next two weeks in London will be pivotal in determining the No. 1 ranking for 2011. With that in mind, let’s see which players should remain standing when the baseline loses it’s original green shine. Beginning the year complaining and injured, Nadal now has an opportunity to defend his title and wash away Djokovic’s near perfect record. Opening up against bulldog American Michael Russell, Nadal will likely see his first significant challenge in the third-round against either Gilles Muller or No. 31 seed Milos Raonic. Losing to Muller at Wimbledon in 2005, Nadal owns a 1-0 head-to-head series lead over the young Canadian. With both Muller and Raonic possessing devastating serves (in different ways), the Spaniard will need to have his return game at full tilt in order to survive. Juan Martin del Potro and Gilles Simon also lurk as potential fourth-round opponents for the top seed, with either Mardy Fish, Fernando Verdasco or Tomas Berdych waiting in the quarterfinals. Based on the draw that’s before him, Nadal’s toughest opponent could very well be Raonic before the semifinals, with an inform Fish also holding the goods for a colossal upset. Needing to defend his title in order to have a chance at holding onto his No. 1 ranking, look for Nadal to waste much less time on court in the first few rounds, with a potential popcorn match against Raonic going the distance. All in all, I would have given Raonic a quarterfinal position in the event if he was placed farther away from a menace like Nadal, but as it stands now the Mallorcan looks good to reach his fifth straight semifinal. Pick: Nadal Will this be the year that Murray sheds the confines of the semifinals? Dealt a reasonable draw to race through early, the Scot could face Marin Cilic in the third-round, with former semifinalist Richard Gasquet on deck in the round-of-16. To be quite honest here, Murray doesn’t have many landmines that stand in his way before the final four, and unless he goes into one of his mental ruts, his third straight semifinal should be achieved. Andy Roddick does land in as the No. 8 seed in this quarter—and he did beat Murray here in 2009—but with all things being equal at the moment, Roddick is a far cry from the player that he once was. Taking into account the shellacking that Murray afflicted on Roddick at Queen’s Club, look for the local favorite on the men’s side to cruise into his third straight semi this year. Pick: Murray Needing a follow up Slam performance to inch his way back to the top spot, Federer will look to use his picturesque serve to smother his early round foes. Going five in his first-round last year, Federer will look to avoid a similar fate against Mikhail Kukushkin in his first match. Tricky Frenchman Adrian Mannarino could test Federer in round two, but the Swiss craftsman shouldn’t feel any real adversity until a potential third-round meeting with David Nalbandian. Say what you want about the Argentine and him not living up to his potential, but the former Wimbledon finalist knows Federer’s game just as well as anyone, and has eight wins against him to prove it. With that being said, I don’t foresee Federer’s serve being handled by the aging Nalbandian the way that it once was, leaving the marquee first-round winner between John Isner or Nicolas Mahut the No. 3 seed’s first real challenge. Playing the longest match in tennis history last year in the very same round, Isner and Mahut will have a lot to live up to if they intend on bettering their previous performance. No. 16 seed Nicolas Almagro is anything but a threat on grass, while No. 7 seed David Ferrer has been Federer’s personal punching bag throughout the past few years. Considering that Federer’s quarter is filled with clay-court wizards, it would sincerely take a world-beater effort to send off the six-time winner before the semifinals. I could see Isner giving Federer something to think about if he can get that far, but otherwise the man donning a splash of green on his wardrobe this year should cruise into final four territory. Pick: Federer With no introduction needed for the best player of ‘11, Djokovic’s early rounds will be telling considering that he hasn’t played a competitive match in nearly three weeks. Keeping in mind that grass is the Serb’s worst surface, a first-round tussle against the flaky efforts of Jeremy Chardy should be routine, but there could be some bumpy moments before the second weekend. Should we spend a moment here on Robin Soderling? The world’s fifth best player did reach the quarterfinals last year, and the slower grass surface should assist his wrecking ball groundstorkes. However, Soderling has struggled with injuries lately, and he hasn’t defeated any of the men ranked ahead of him this year. Grass will always remain the Swede’s second or third favorite surface, and a tricky opening encounter against Philipp Petzscher could result in the upset of the first-round. Soderling doesn’t match up particularly well against Djokovic, leaving the Serb the most likely to come out of this quarter. I have a feeling that Djokovic will struggle a tad more in reaching the latter stages of the event compared with the other top four men, but his descent through the draw should result in a potent opportunity at his third Major title. Pick: Djokovic Dark-Horses: Gilles Muller (Plays better at Slams than the regular Tour) John Isner (You have to feel that a quicker contest against Mahut will do him good) Yen-Hsun Lu (Defeated Roddick in the fourth-round last year and owns the flat strokes to prevail on grass) Quarterfinal Predictions: Nadal vs. Fish; Murray vs. Karlovic; Federer vs. Tsonga; Djokovic vs. Petzschner Semifinals: Nadal vs. Murray; Federer vs. Djokovic Finals: Federer d. Nadal 
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Wimbledon gets under way this week, but don’t look for too many upsets. From a statistical standpoint, Wimbledon has more or less been won by a top four player throughout the past 25 years. Players seldom come out of the woodwork to win the Big W, and it appears that this year will be no different. While Roger Federer proved many of the naysayers wrong by reaching his fifth French Open final, the Swiss star will have a different level of confidence (and much to prove) over the upcoming fortnight. Losing in the quarterfinals last year to Tomas Berdych, Federer will likely improve on that position this time around and bid for tournament tying seventh title with Pete Sampras.
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