The 4:30pm EST matinee may lack marquee value, but its an intriguing quarterback matchup between Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Arizona's Kurt Warner, which should be an exciting game with plenty of points put up. The big Saturday Wild Card matchup is the evening game, pitting red-hot Indianapolis and San Diego against each other, starting at 8:00pm EST.
In the early goings, it appeared both of these teams wouldn't even reach postseason after being oddsmakers second and third choice to win the Super Bowl (behind odds on favorite New England). But a Colts mid-season and Chargers late-season surge has each club primed for a playoff run. The real online NFL betting season starts with the postseason. So let's look at both of Saturday's Wild Card games, including vital sports betting ATS trends in efforts of beginning 2009 and your NFL postseason in money-making fashion.
Atlanta Falcons (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS)
The 23-year-old Offensive Rookie of the Year Ryan (87.7 QB rating) looks to help the Falcons continue their remarkable turnaround as they visit the 37-year-old Warner and the NFC West champion Cardinals. With his best season in years, grizzled veteran Warner has led the Cardinals to their first playoff appearance in 10 years. Warner guided the long-downtrodden Cardinals to their second postseason berth since 1982 and first since 1998. It was the longest playoff drought in the NFL before Arizona clinched its first division title in 33 years with a 34-10 win over St. Louis on Dec. 7. Warner started 16 games for the first time since 2001, finishing second in the league in passing yards (4,583), completions (401) and completion percentage (67.1), and third with a franchise-record 30 touchdowns. He became the fourth quarterback in league history to pass for more than 4,500 yards in multiple seasons, and the first to have more than one season between his 4,500-yard campaigns. Warner had the gaudier numbers during the regular season, including a 96.9 passer rating, but this was also partly due to volume. The Cardinals decided to bench RB Edgerrin James after Week 8 and anoint Tim Hightower the new starting tailback, but that didn’t work out too well – Hightower is a one-dimensional power runner and played like it with 2.8 yards per carry. So Warner ended up throwing 631 passes this year, second only to Drew Brees (647) in New Orleans. Arizona made the playoffs despite finishing with the NFL’s worst rush offense - the first team to do so since the 1986 Patriots. The Cardinals averaged only 73.6 yards on the ground, less than half the Falcons’ average of 152.7 - second-most in the league. The Cardinals made up for their lack of a running game with their dynamic passing attack. Receivers Larry Fitzgerald (1,431), Anquan Boldin (1,038) and Steve Breaston (1,006) became just the fifth trio of teammates to go over the 1,000-yard receiving mark in the same season. —Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. —Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. —Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. —Over is 40-18 in Cardinals last 58 vs. NFC. —Over is 9-1 in Cardinals last 10 home games. —Over is 35-16 in Cardinals last 51 games overall. Selected third overall in April’s draft, Ryan completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 3,440 yards and 16 touchdowns, helping Atlanta finish with seven more wins under first-year coach Mike Smith than it had last season, matching the biggest turnaround in franchise history. Ryan had 455 pass attempts. Atlanta was second in the NFL in rushing yardage (2,443) during the regular season, third in first downs (131) and eighth in yards per carry (4.4). Handing the ball off on a regular basis and playing behind a rebuilt strong offensive line limited Ryan’s exposure; he was sacked 17 times this year (No. 5 in the NFL). Running back Michael Turner finished second in the league with 1,699 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns to earn his first Pro Bowl invitation in his first season as a starter.
The Falcons won seven of their last nine regular-season games, including their last three. But they’re 1-5 all-time in Arizona, where these teams last met in Week 16 of 2007. Neil Rackers connected on a 31-yard field goal in overtime to give Arizona a 30-27 win and snap the team’s four-game losing streak to Atlanta.
—Falcons are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass. —Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. —Falcons are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. —Falcons are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. —Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 Saturday games. —Under is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. —Under is 37-14-1 in Falcons last 52 road games.
BetPhoenix's NFL football odds list Atlanta the 1½-point favorites with a game total of 50½. Here are your key head-to-head ATS trends if you bet on NFL action: —Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. —Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Arizona. —Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings overall.
Indianapolis (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) at San Diego (8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS)
Indianapolis, winner of nine straight games, and San Diego, which has won four in a row, meet for the second consecutive year in the playoffs and for the second time this season on Saturday night in an AFC Wild Card game.
Indianapolis endured four defeats in its first seven contests this year, but closed out the regular season with nine straight wins, including 23-20 at AFC West champion San Diego on Nov. 23. The Chargers surged in the final month of the season, however, winning all four of their games to improve to 14-0 in December since 2006 and advance to the playoffs for the third year in a row. No NFL team had reached postseason play after starting 4-8. Injuries have kept both of these teams from reaching their full potential. San Diego’s stumbles can be pinned almost entirely on the loss of LB Shawne Merriman for the season; without him, the Bolts fell from No. 5 in the league in sacks with 42 to No. 22 with 28.
The Colts had a barrage of injuries to begin the season, with the offensive line bearing the brunt of the damage. The starting five for Saturday, led by center Jeff Saturday, is relatively intact, and safety Bob Sanders is also believed to be ready for action after playing just six games due to various issues. However, the No. 1 health story in Indianapolis was QB Peyton Manning, who got off to a very slow start as he recuperated from offseason knee surgery. Manning established history, extending his own league record for 4,000-yard passing seasons to nine. Manning has completed 72.1 percent of his passes while throwing 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions in the last nine games. The Colts finished fifth in the league with 255.9 passing yards per contest. On Friday, Manning joined Brett Favre as the only three-time winners of The Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player Award.
The Colts running game was a mess this year because of injuries to the O-line and to both Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes (each with just 3.5 yards per carry).
—Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games. —Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC. —Colts are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. —Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. —Colts are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
San Diego’s offense, directed by quarterback Philip Rivers, was 10th in the NFL with 358.4 yards per game. First in the league with a 105.5 passer rating, Rivers was fifth with 4,009 yards - seven more than Manning - and tied New Orleans’ Drew Brees for the most touchdown passes with a franchise-record 34. The Chargers running game also had a down year with LaDainian Tomlinson putting up just 3.8 yards per carry, but his ability to catch passes in the flat (52 receptions this year) and the rise of No. 2 tailback Darren Sproles (5.4 yards per carry) give San Diego the advantage here – and Sproles is also a far better returner than anything the Colts have to offer this year.
—Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. —Chargers are 18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 vs. AFC. —Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. —Chargers are 8-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. —Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in January. —Chargers are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games on grass. The last three matchups between these teams have been decided by a combined nine points, with the Chargers winning twice. Manning went 32-for-44 for 255 yards and two TDs, while Rivers was 24-for-31 for 288 yards and two scores in November’s meeting, which Indianapolis won on an Adam Vinatieri 51-yard field goal as time expired.
BetPhoenix's NFL football odds list Indianapolis the 1-point favorites with a game total of 50. Here are your key head-to-head ATS online NFL wagering trends: —Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. —Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. —Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
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