Baltimore Ravens (11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS)
In what's one of the biggest turnarounds in sport's history, last year's 1-15 Dolphins will look to continue their already improbable run, as they host the Ravens at 1:00pm EST on Sunday in efforts of adding to its amazing feat. It's certainly an AFC Wild Card game featuring two of the NFL’s least likely teams to have reached the playoffs. BetPhoenix's NFL football odds list Baltimore 3½-point favorites with a game total of 37½. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in this series, which plays into Miami investor's hands that bet on NFL action. As well, Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Further more Fins' fans, the Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. A year after going 1-15, Miami won the AFC East for its first division title since 2000. The Dolphins, who were 0-13 in 2007 before beating Baltimore 22-16, won their final five games of 2008 to become just the second team in NFL history to post a 10-win improvement. Miami’s unlikely turnaround came after an overhaul in the offseason under the guidance of Bill Parcells, who was named executive vice president of football operations. Under new coach Tony Sparano, who took over for Cam Cameron — now the offensive coordinator for the Ravens—the Dolphins still got off to a rough start, losing four of their first six games, but after a 27-13 loss at home to the Ravens on Oct. 19, things rapidly began to improve. Quarterback Chad Pennington deserves much of the credit for the turnaround, and on Wednesday he was named the AP’s 2008 NFL Comeback Player of the Year— the second time in three years he’s received the award. Pennington threw for 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions, finishing with a career-high 3,653 yards. The Dolphins have lost their last two playoff games, most recently to the Ravens in 2002, when they also went 11-5 during the regular season. —Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC. —Dolphins are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. —Dolphins are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 home games. The Ravens are in the playoffs for the second time in three years, but they returned after going 5-11 in 2007. As remarkable as that turnaround is, however, it pales in comparison to the surprising success of the Dolphins. They won five of their final six games to clinch a playoff spot. Like the Dolphins, the Ravens’ turnaround comes in part due to the success of their quarterback. Joe Flacco was the 18th overall pick in this year’s draft out of the University of Delaware and originally expected to back up Kyle Boller. Though, Boller was placed on injured reserve before the season due to a shoulder injury, pressing Flacco into the starting spot.He responded like a seasoned veteran, completing 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards and 14 TDs with 12 interceptions. Unlike Pennington, who has some postseason experience, Flacco’s rookie status has the Ravens banking on one of the league’s best defenses to help guide them in the playoffs. Baltimore, which was second in yards allowed (277.1) and third in scoring defense (15.3), held three of its final six opponents to 10 points or less. As the six seed, Baltimore must play all of its playoff games on the road, but the Ravens have won five of their last six road games, outscoring opponents by an average of 12 points. However, the Ravens have lost its last three playoff games since winning at Miami in the 2002 Wild Card game. —Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC. —Ravens are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on grass. —Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in January. —Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. —Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1 SU, 10-6 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (10-6 SU, 6-10 ATS) Sunday's 4:00pm EST NFC Wild Card game also pits two clubs facing off that weren't supposed to be here according to the preseason experts. Six weeks ago, the Eagles weren’t even thinking about the playoffs, as they tied a game and had their star quarterback benched in successive weeks. But it proved to be a pivotal turning point, as they now focus on the Vikings, who also used a late season surge to get into the playoffs as the NFC North champions. BetPhoenix's NFL football odds list Philadelphia the 3-point favorites with a game total of 41. Here are your key head-to-head ATS online NFL wagering trends: —Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. —Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. —Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. This is Minnesota’s first playoff appearance since 2004, when it defeated Green Bay in a Wild Card game before losing to the Eagles 27-14 in the divisional playoffs. Philadelphia has won its first playoff game each of its last six times in the postseason, while Minnesota has won its first game in the playoffs five straight times. The Eagles are making their seventh playoff appearance in nine years, but this one happened after a chain of surprising results in Week 17. Philadelphia avoided elimination when Oakland upset Tampa Bay and Houston beat Chicago in the early games. The Eagles then completed their unlikely journey to the playoffs with a 44-6 victory over Dallas to clinch the final NFC Wild Card spot. Philadelphia scored a franchise-record 416 points and enters the playoffs with victories in four of its last five games, outscoring opponents by an average of 23.0 points in those wins. This surge comes right after a disappointing stretch. In Week 11 at Cincinnati, the Eagles and Bengals ended in tied 13-all. The tie ended up being the difference in the final standings, as Philadelphia finished a half-game ahead Dallas, Chicago and Tampa Bay for the NFC’s final playoff spot A week later, Reid benched a shaky McNabb for an inexperienced Kevin Kolb at halftime of a 10-7 game at Baltimore. It was the first time the five-time Pro Bowl quarterback got yanked from a game in his career, and the Eagles went on to lose 36-7. Philadelphia dropped to 5-5-1 at that time with its playoff hopes looking bleak. But McNabb was back in the lineup the next week for the Eagles’ 48-20 win over Arizona on Thanksgiving, and has been carrying the team since his benching. McNabb completed 64.3 percent of his passes, threw nine touchdowns, one interception and lost one fumble in his final five games after he completed 47.4 percent of his passes, threw one touchdown, five interceptions and lost two fumbles in the previous two. —Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC. —Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games. —Eagles are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. —Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. —Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Vikings have also had a turbulent season, and they also seem to be peaking at the right time.Minnesota opened the season with back-to-back losses, leading to the benching of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, and took a 3-4 record into their bye week. The Vikings rebounded by winning five of their last six games, including last Sunday’s 20-19 win over the New York Giants to capture their first playoff berth since 2004 and first division title since 2000. With some inconsistent quarterback play, Adrian Peterson has carried Minnesota’s offense.Peterson won the NFL rushing title with 1,760 yards and will likely be joined again in the backfield by Jackson, who has started Minnesota’s last three games for the injured Gus Frerotte (back). Jackson has done a solid job as Frerotte’s replacement, throwing for 635 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception in the last three weeks. Peterson has run for 449 yards on 93 carries in four games this month, but has had trouble holding onto the ball, fumbling five times in those games. He was held to 70 yards on 20 carries in last season’s 23-16 home loss to Philadelphia, as McNabb threw for 333 yards and one touchdown. The Eagles have the league’s fourth-best rush defense (92.3 yards per game), and are tied for fifth in the league with 14 defensive fumble recoveries. They forced two fumbles last week against the Cowboys and returned both for touchdowns. The Vikings boast the league’s top-ranked rush defense for the third straight season—the longest such streak for any team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger—but they may be without a big piece of their front line again. —Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC. —Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on turf. —Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. —Vikings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. |